Philippines Fuel Price Trends: Q1 2026 Recap and What to Expect
A comprehensive look at how fuel prices moved across the Philippines in Q1 2026, with special focus on the Visayas region and Cebu province.
Philippines Fuel Price Trends: Q1 2026 Recap
The first quarter of 2026 has been a rollercoaster for fuel prices in the Philippines. After starting the year with two consecutive price increases, the market finally saw relief in March with multiple rounds of decreases. Here's what happened and what experts predict for the rest of the year.
Q1 2026 Price Movement Summary
- January: Two increases totaling P2.00/liter for regular gasoline. Driven by post-holiday demand and Middle East supply concerns.
- February: One increase of P0.75/liter, then a surprise P0.50 decrease in the last week. Mixed signals from global markets.
- March (so far): Two decreases totaling P1.50/liter. Crude oil benchmark (Dubai) dropped below $75/barrel.
Regional Comparison: Cebu vs. Manila vs. Davao
Fuel prices in Cebu typically run P0.50–P1.00 higher than Metro Manila due to transportation and logistics costs. However, the gap has narrowed in 2026 as more fuel depots have opened in the Visayas. Davao and Mindanao generally see prices similar to or slightly lower than Cebu, benefiting from proximity to domestic refineries.
| Region | Regular (avg) | Premium (avg) | Diesel (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metro Manila | P62.50 | P67.00 | P57.00 |
| Cebu | P63.80 | P68.50 | P58.50 |
| Davao | P63.20 | P68.00 | P57.80 |
What's Driving the Trends?
Several macroeconomic factors are at play:
- Global crude supply: Non-OPEC production (particularly from the US and Guyana) has increased, putting downward pressure on prices.
- Philippine peso: The peso has strengthened to around P56.50 per USD, making imported fuel cheaper.
- Domestic competition: New independent fuel retailers are expanding in the Visayas, forcing established brands to compete on price.
- Excise tax: The TRAIN law's annual excise tax increase added P1.00/liter on January 1, which is baked into all 2026 prices.
Outlook for Q2 2026
Most analysts expect prices to remain relatively stable through Q2, with minor fluctuations of P0.25–P0.50 in either direction. The summer driving season (Holy Week and beyond) may create temporary demand spikes, but increased supply should keep prices in check.
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